National retail sales expected to grow 4.2% as Maryland businesses prepare for a competitive holiday shopping season.

ANNAPOLIS, MD – Maryland retailers are entering the 2026 holiday shopping season with cautious optimism as consumers continue to balance holiday purchases against rising household expenses and economic uncertainty, according to the Maryland Retailers Alliance (MRA) annual holiday sales survey.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts holiday retail sales will increase 4.2% nationally over 2025, reaching a record $1.013 trillion during November and December. Last year's holiday sales totaled $972 billion, representing a 3.1% increase over 2024.

While the national forecast reflects continued consumer resilience, Maryland retailers are reporting a more mixed outlook. According to MRA's annual member survey, 64% of respondents anticipate holiday sales will remain flat or increase compared with last year, while 36% expect sales to decline.

“Consumers have continued to demonstrate their willingness to spend during the holidays, but there is no question that household budgets are being stretched,” said Cailey Locklair, President of the Maryland Retailers Alliance. “Our members are hopeful for a strong holiday season, but they also recognize that shoppers are being more deliberate about where and how they spend their money. Retailers are responding by focusing on value, competitive pricing and creating positive shopping experiences.”

MRA's survey found that 64% of participating businesses experienced lower sales during September and October compared with the same period last year, suggesting that many retailers are relying on the holiday shopping season to strengthen their year-end performance.

Small businesses expressed the greatest optimism, with 60% anticipating holiday sales growth of at least 2% and 80% expecting sales to at least match last year's levels. Medium-sized and large business respondents were more cautious, with most anticipating declining sales.

Economic conditions remain the most significant concern among participating retailers. Nearly 80% cited factors such as inflation, rising living expenses and reduced consumer purchasing power as potential challenges. Businesses also expressed concern that consumers may prioritize essential purchases over discretionary spending on gifts, dining and other holiday activities.

Despite these concerns, retailers identified several opportunities to attract shoppers, including community holiday events, tourism, local shopping initiatives and targeted promotions.

“Maryland's independent retailers are an important part of what makes our communities unique, and the holiday season is especially critical to their success,” Locklair said. “When consumers shop locally, they are supporting businesses that employ their neighbors, contribute to the local tax base and invest directly in their communities. We encourage Marylanders to remember their neighborhood stores and Main Street businesses as they make their holiday purchases.”

Holiday hiring plans also reflect a measured approach to the season. Half of MRA's survey respondents anticipate adding between one and five seasonal employees, while the remaining businesses do not expect to increase staffing. Nationally, NRF projects retailers will hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, consistent with last year's hiring levels.

Advertising and promotional spending among Maryland respondents remains mixed, with businesses reporting plans to increase, maintain or reduce their marketing budgets. Retailers continue to balance the need to attract customers with the rising costs of operating their businesses.

“Retailers understand that consumers have choices, and competition for holiday spending will be strong,” Locklair added. “Whether shopping online, at a large retailer or at a neighborhood business, Maryland consumers can expect retailers to work hard to earn their business this holiday season."

MRA's annual holiday sales outlook incorporates member survey responses and a review of the National Retail Federation's holiday forecast and consumer trends. The 2026 MRA survey included participating businesses of varying sizes. Survey findings reflect the expectations of participating businesses and are not a statistically representative forecast of statewide retail sales.