ANNAPOLIS, MD – The Maryland Retailers Alliance (MRA) today released its annual holiday sales outlook following the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) nationwide forecast. The NRF anticipates U.S. holiday retail sales will grow between 3.7% and 4.2% this season, surpassing the $1 trillion mark for the first time. This national projection, coupled with Maryland-specific economic indicators, suggests a holiday season marked by steady but cautious consumer spending across the state’s retail sector.



National retail data reflects underlying consumer resilience despite inflation and ongoing cost pressures. For Maryland retailers from apparel and electronics to home goods, specialty retail, grocery, and small businesses, this signals a potential opportunity for modest growth. Retailers across the state are preparing for a season where shoppers remain engaged but more price-sensitive, with spending decisions influenced by inflation, household budgeting, and shifts in discretionary purchasing.

Maryland retailers continue to navigate a challenging operating environment, including increased costs for labor, logistics, and compliance, as well as ongoing supply-chain volatility. Seasonal hiring is expected to be more constrained than in past years, with the NRF projecting the lowest national holiday hiring levels in several years. As a result, retailers in Maryland are adjusting staffing models, cross-training team members, and leaning on operational efficiencies to support anticipated holiday traffic.

“While the national forecast gives us reason for optimism, Maryland’s retail sector must approach the season with both strategic planning and adaptability,” said Cailey Locklair, President of the Maryland Retailers Alliance. “Retailers across the state are facing tight labor markets, higher operating costs, and an increasingly frugal consumer. The stores that focus on value, customer experience, and efficient operations are best positioned to succeed. This is a pivotal time for Maryland’s retail community, and we expect strong performance from those who meet consumers where they are.”

Maryland’s diverse retail landscape, ranging from large national chains to local Main Street businesses, stands to benefit from consumers prioritizing convenience, competitive pricing, and personalized service. With inflation influencing purchasing decisions, shoppers are expected to increasingly seek out discounts, loyalty programs, private-label products, and targeted promotions. Retailers who effectively communicate value, maintain reliable inventory, and deliver strong in-store and online customer experiences are likely to outperform.

Despite headwinds, MRA notes that the holiday season remains the most critical revenue period of the year for Maryland retailers, contributing significantly to the state’s economy, workforce, and local communities. The association encourages consumers to shop early, support Maryland-based businesses, and take advantage of the wide range of offerings across the state.